Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aarhus · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Hobro are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLWLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Aarhus are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Aarhus hold an 8.3-point power-rating edge (50.3 v 58.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.0% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Aarhus holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 47% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Aarhus
Probability
40.0%
Model confidence
40.0%
Aarhus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60