HNK Rijekavs
NK Osijek
COMPLETEDCroatia · HNL · 9/5/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
HNK Rijeka · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
HNK Rijeka 4-1 NK Osijek
Original prediction
HNK Rijeka
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 50.9% | 36.9% | -14.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.6% | 28.4% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 4.27 | 21.5% | 34.7% | 13.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.80 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
HNK Rijeka
Probability
36.9%
Model confidence
36.9%
HNK Rijeka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00