HNK Rijekavs
HNK Hajduk Split
COMPLETEDCroatia · HNL · 9/20/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
HNK Rijeka · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
HNK Rijeka 3-0 HNK Hajduk Split
Original prediction
HNK Rijeka
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 45.4% | 40.6% | -4.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 27.9% | 28.5% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 3.42 | 26.7% | 30.9% | 4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.01 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
HNK Rijeka
Probability
40.6%
Model confidence
40.6%
HNK Rijeka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
GF 12 · GA 2 · avg 2.40/0.40