HNK Rijekavs
FC Midtjylland
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa Conference League · 8/27/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Midtjylland · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
HNK Rijeka 1-4 FC Midtjylland
Original prediction
FC Midtjylland
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.94 | 31.5% | 30.2% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 27.7% | 28.4% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.27 | 40.8% | 41.4% | 0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.27 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
FC Midtjylland
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
FC Midtjylland has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60