HNK Rijeka
HomeDekani
AwayFriendly match — very hard to predict, not included in accuracy.
The model projects 2.43 xG for HNK Rijeka and 0.30 xG for Dekani. Dekani's projected xG of 0.30 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 0-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. With only 0 goal expected in total, the match is projected to be a tight, low-scoring affair where one goal may be enough to decide the contest.HNK Rijeka's defensive record — 8 clean sheets in 10 matches — combined with Dekani's limited attacking output (0 clean sheets conceded in 10 games) supports the model's projection of at least one side keeping a clean sheet.
The model projects a combined xG of 2.73 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 0-0 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. Only 0 goal is expected in the most likely outcome — the model sees this as a tight, low-scoring contest where one goal could be decisive.The defensive profiles of both sides are stronger than their attacking counterparts — HNK Rijeka's Defensive Stability (66) and Dekani's (27) both suggest teams capable of limiting the opposition. When both defences are this organised, the model expects a lower-scoring environment.
Probability breakdown
Dekani leads with 33% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.
HNK Rijeka vs Dekani: Model Points to a Closely-Fought Draw
HNK Rijeka host Dekani in Friendlies Clubs. HNK Rijeka have recorded WWWWWW in recent matches while Dekani arrive with a run of WDWLLL. These sides have met 1 times recently, averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Why GoalVio backs this
The xG model projects 2.43 for HNK Rijeka and 0.30 for Dekani. The gap of 2.13 is not large enough to decisively separate the sides — neither team is creating chances at a level that justifies a clear winner projection.
Biggest risk: null have won 6 of their last 10 matches — a run of form the model acknowledges but cannot fully override. If null carry that momentum into this fixture and score first, the upset probability rises significantly above what the headline verdict suggests.
Risk factors
- ⚠HNK Rijeka have been conceding 2.08 goals per game — their defence could be exposed.
- ⚠Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
- ⚠The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win HNK Rijeka vs Dekani?
GoalVio's model predicts a draw with 33% confidence.
What is the predicted score for HNK Rijeka vs Dekani?
The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 0-0.
Will both teams score in HNK Rijeka vs Dekani?
GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in HNK Rijeka vs Dekani?
GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.