HNK Hajduk Splitvs
Ajax
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa Conference League · 10/15/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ajax · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
HNK Hajduk Split 2-1 Ajax
Original prediction
Ajax
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.69 | 20.1% | 33.4% | 13.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.23 | 22.2% | 26.4% | 4.2 pts |
| Away | 1.63 | 57.7% | 40.2% | -17.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.2–28%
Predicted outcome
Ajax
Probability
40.2%
Model confidence
40.2%
Ajax has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 14 · GA 8 · avg 2.80/1.60