HNK Goricavs
NK Varazdin
COMPLETEDCroatia · HNL · 9/14/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
NK Varazdin · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
HNK Gorica 2-2 NK Varazdin
Original prediction
NK Varazdin
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.20 | 28.6% | 29.8% | 1.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 27.9% | 28.5% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.10 | 43.5% | 41.7% | -1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.28 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
NK Varazdin
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
NK Varazdin has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60