HNK Cibaliavs
Dugopolje
COMPLETEDCroatia · First NL · 9/27/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
HNK Cibalia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
HNK Cibalia 1-0 Dugopolje
Original prediction
HNK Cibalia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.27 | 39.5% | 37.9% | -1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.03 | 29.6% | 29.9% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.92 | 30.8% | 32.2% | 1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.27 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
HNK Cibalia
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
HNK Cibalia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40