Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hønefoss · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 3-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hønefoss 2-1 Junkeren
Original prediction
Hønefoss
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.20 | 75.0% | 75.6% | 0.6 pts |
| Draw | 6.10 | 14.8% | 13.4% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 8.87 | 10.2% | 11.0% | 0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.20 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.3–08%
Predicted outcome
Hønefoss
Probability
75.6%
Model confidence
75.6%
Hønefoss has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HønefossDLLWW
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
JunkerenLWLWW
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
HønefossJunkeren
81.2Attack46.4
52.2Defence43.5
66.7Form44.9
66.0Power47.0
3.23xG1.19