Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hønefoss · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hønefoss 1-1 Grorud
Original prediction
Hønefoss
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.83 | 49.5% | 50.4% | 0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.87 | 23.4% | 20.8% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 3.35 | 27.0% | 28.8% | 1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.87 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Hønefoss
Probability
50.4%
Model confidence
50.4%
Hønefoss has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HønefossWWLWW
GF 19 · GA 9 · avg 3.80/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
GrorudWDWWL
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
HønefossGrorud
90.7Attack54.9
50.0Defence66.7
70.4Form58.8
69.0Power61.0
2.05xG1.52