Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hønefoss · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 4-1 (10%), 4-0 (10%), 5-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hønefoss 2-1 Follo
Original prediction
Hønefoss
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.22 | 74.4% | 84.7% | 10.2 pts |
| Draw | 6.21 | 14.6% | 9.2% | -5.4 pts |
| Away | 8.28 | 10.9% | 6.2% | -4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.22 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.4–110%
- 2.4–010%
- 3.5–19%
Predicted outcome
Hønefoss
Probability
84.7%
Model confidence
84.7%
Hønefoss has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HønefossLWWWW
GF 20 · GA 8 · avg 4.00/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
FolloDLLLD
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
HønefossFollo
91.7Attack39.6
50.0Defence27.1
66.7Form20.8
67.5Power32.2
4.50xG1.01