Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
HJK · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 4-0
HJK are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWD), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Ilves are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWWL), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and HJK hold a 37.0-point power-rating edge (86.3 v 49.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 4-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.6% in the Kansallinen Liiga, while HJK holds the strongest overall chance at 87% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 84% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
HJK
Probability
86.7%
Model confidence
10.6%
HJK has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
GF 14 · GA 9 · avg 2.80/1.80