Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
HJK · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 4-0
HJK are 2W-0D-1L in their last 3 (WWL), averaging 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Ilves are 1W-2D-0L in their last 3 (WDD), averaging 0.67 scored and 0.33 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 6 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and HJK hold a 37.0-point power-rating edge (86.3 v 49.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 4-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 85.7% in the Kansallinen Liiga, while HJK holds the strongest overall chance at 86% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 84% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
HJK
Probability
85.7%
Model confidence
85.7%
HJK has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 1.33/1.00
GF 2 · GA 1 · avg 0.67/0.33