HJK Helsinkivs
Gnistan
COMPLETEDFinland · Veikkausliiga · 10/17/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
HJK Helsinki · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
HJK Helsinki 4-0 Gnistan
Original prediction
HJK Helsinki
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.45 | 63.7% | 54.8% | -8.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.61 | 20.0% | 22.3% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 5.64 | 16.3% | 22.9% | 6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.45 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
HJK Helsinki
Probability
54.8%
Model confidence
54.8%
HJK Helsinki has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80