Hitchin Townvs
Leighton Town
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Southern Central · 9/29/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leighton Town · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (8%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hitchin Town 1-0 Leighton Town
Original prediction
Leighton Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.53 | 35.5% | 36.2% | 0.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 27.4% | 26.2% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.42 | 37.2% | 37.6% | 0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–08%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Leighton Town
Probability
37.6%
Model confidence
37.6%
Leighton Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 8 · GA 16 · avg 1.60/3.20