Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aalborg · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hillerød 2-1 Aalborg
Original prediction
Aalborg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 October 2026 at 05:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.00 | 30.6% | 33.2% | 2.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 26.4% | 27.1% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.13 | 43.0% | 39.7% | -3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Aalborg
Probability
39.7%
Model confidence
39.7%
Aalborg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HillerødLLDWL
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
AalborgLDWDD
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
HillerødAalborg
39.4Attack42.4
48.5Defence54.5
27.3Form42.4
40.7Power48.7
1.12xG1.23