Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Esbjerg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-1 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
HIK 0-5 Esbjerg
Original prediction
Esbjerg
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.87 | 18.6% | 35.5% | 17.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.99 | 22.6% | 23.8% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 1.54 | 58.8% | 40.6% | -18.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Esbjerg
Probability
40.6%
Model confidence
40.6%
Esbjerg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HIKLWLWL
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
EsbjergDLLWL
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
HIKEsbjerg
100.0Attack100.0
66.7Defence83.3
100.0Form100.0
90.7Power93.8
2.38xG2.07