Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Shkendija · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Hibernian are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Shkendija are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWW), averaging 2.60 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Shkendija hold a 2.5-point power-rating edge (58.9 v 61.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.3% in the UEFA Europa Conference League, while Shkendija holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 45% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Shkendija
Probability
37.3%
Model confidence
37.3%
Shkendija has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
GF 13 · GA 3 · avg 2.60/0.60