Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hibernian · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Hibernian are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Gent are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DWWDD), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Hibernian hold a 2.7-point power-rating edge (58.9 v 56.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.4% in the UEFA Europa Conference League, while Hibernian holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 45% BTTS chance and 38% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Hibernian
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
14.4%
Hibernian has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 4 · GA 1 · avg 0.80/0.20