Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hibernian · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Hibernian 0-0 Falkirk, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Hibernian 1-2 Falkirk
Original prediction
Hibernian
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 12:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.66 | 56.2% | 44.4% | -11.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.90 | 24.0% | 27.7% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 4.72 | 19.8% | 27.9% | 8.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.8 pts
Projected Score
Hibernian 0–0 Falkirk
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Hibernian
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
Hibernian has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HibernianLDLWL
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FalkirkLDWDL
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
HibernianFalkirk
33.3Attack29.2
50.0Defence54.2
29.2Form25.0
40.5Power39.1
1.08xG0.89