Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hibernian · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hibernian 1-1 Aberdeen
Original prediction
Hibernian
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 53.8% | 40.7% | -13.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.78 | 24.7% | 27.0% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 4.36 | 21.4% | 32.2% | 10.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.78 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Hibernian
Probability
40.7%
Model confidence
40.7%
Hibernian has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HibernianLWLLW
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
AberdeenWDDLL
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
HibernianAberdeen
38.9Attack33.3
44.4Defence61.1
33.3Form38.9
41.9Power44.6
1.14xG1.13