Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hestrafor · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hestrafor 0-1 Onsala
Original prediction
Hestrafor
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.88 | 48.3% | 59.5% | 11.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.88 | 23.4% | 18.8% | -4.6 pts |
| Away | 3.20 | 28.3% | 21.8% | -6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.1–18%
Predicted outcome
Hestrafor
Probability
59.5%
Model confidence
59.5%
Hestrafor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HestraforDLWWW
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
OnsalaLWWLL
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
HestraforOnsala
69.6Attack46.4
44.9Defence46.4
59.4Form39.1
58.8Power44.8
2.57xG1.38