Hertha BSCvs
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
COMPLETEDGermany · 2. Bundesliga · 10/11/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hertha BSC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (9%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hertha BSC 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Original prediction
Hertha BSC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.55 | 60.2% | 65.0% | 4.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.47 | 20.9% | 18.6% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 4.96 | 18.9% | 16.4% | -2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.55 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–19%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Hertha BSC
Probability
65.0%
Model confidence
65.0%
Hertha BSC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20