Herrestadsvs
Ahlafors
COMPLETEDSweden · Division 2 - Norra Götaland · 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ahlafors · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 1-3 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Herrestads 2-6 Ahlafors
Original prediction
Ahlafors
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.66 | 34.1% | 26.7% | -7.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.83 | 23.7% | 19.4% | -4.3 pts |
| Away | 2.15 | 42.2% | 53.9% | 11.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.15 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.1–37%
Predicted outcome
Ahlafors
Probability
53.9%
Model confidence
53.9%
Ahlafors has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40