Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
UMECIT · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (14%), 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Herrera 1-3 UMECIT
Original prediction
UMECIT
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.49 | 25.8% | 15.7% | -10.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 27.9% | 21.7% | -6.2 pts |
| Away | 1.95 | 46.2% | 62.6% | 16.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.95 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–214%
- 2.0–114%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
UMECIT
Probability
62.6%
Model confidence
62.6%
UMECIT has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HerreraLLLDL
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
UMECITWDLLL
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
HerreraUMECIT
27.5Attack44.9
27.5Defence59.0
18.8Form43.6
27.8Power50.4
0.68xG1.90