Herefordvs
South Shields
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 9/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hereford · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Hereford 1-0 South Shields, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Hereford 6-0 South Shields
Original prediction
Hereford
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.08 | 29.6% | 44.6% | 15.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.0% | 27.9% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.05 | 44.4% | 27.5% | -16.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.08 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.1 pts
Projected Score
Hereford 1–0 South Shields
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Hereford
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
Hereford has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HerefordWWWDW
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
South ShieldsWWDDD
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
HerefordSouth Shields
62.5Attack37.5
83.3Defence83.3
79.2Form75.0
75.3Power69.2
1.20xG0.66