Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hereford · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Hereford are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LDWWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Radcliffe are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Hereford hold an 8.3-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 15.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.6% in the National League - North, while Hereford holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Hereford
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
13.6%
Hereford has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60