Herefordvs
Hednesford Town
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hereford · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 3-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hereford 0-1 Hednesford Town
Original prediction
Hereford
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.08 | 43.9% | 71.5% | 27.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 25.4% | 15.6% | -9.8 pts |
| Away | 2.96 | 30.7% | 12.9% | -17.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
27.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.3–011%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Hereford
Probability
71.5%
Model confidence
71.5%
Hereford has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40