Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chester · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Hereford are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWDL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Chester are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Chester hold a 56.7-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 80.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.4% in the National League - North, while Chester holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Chester
Probability
44.1%
Model confidence
13.4%
Chester has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 8 · GA 1 · avg 1.60/0.20