Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hereford · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hereford 1-1 Chester
Original prediction
Hereford
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.83 | 32.0% | 38.6% | 6.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 26.5% | 27.3% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.18 | 41.4% | 34.1% | -7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.41 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Hereford
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Hereford has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HerefordWWWLW
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
ChesterWWWWD
GF 6 · GA 1 · avg 1.20/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
HerefordChester
66.7Attack50.0
83.3Defence91.7
75.0Form100.0
74.2Power84.6
1.35xG1.09