Herefordvs
AFC Telford United
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 10/27/2026, 7:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hereford · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Hereford 2-0 AFC Telford United, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Hereford 0-1 AFC Telford United
Original prediction
Hereford
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.72 | 52.9% | 66.2% | 13.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.75 | 24.3% | 19.1% | -5.2 pts |
| Away | 3.98 | 22.9% | 14.7% | -8.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.4 pts
Projected Score
Hereford 2–0 AFC Telford United
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Hereford
Probability
66.2%
Model confidence
66.2%
Hereford has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 7 · GA 15 · avg 1.40/3.00