Hercílio Luzvs
Nação
COMPLETEDBrazil · Copa Santa Catarina · 9/26/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hercílio Luz · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hercílio Luz 2-1 Nação
Original prediction
Hercílio Luz
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 12:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.23 | 72.9% | 50.0% | -22.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.95 | 18.1% | 24.8% | 6.6 pts |
| Away | 10.04 | 8.9% | 25.3% | 16.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-23.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Hercílio Luz
Probability
50.0%
Model confidence
50.0%
Hercílio Luz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20