Hercílio Luzvs
Barra
COMPLETEDBrazil · Copa Santa Catarina · 10/17/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hercílio Luz · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (7%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hercílio Luz 2-0 Barra
Original prediction
Hercílio Luz
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 13:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.86 | 48.2% | 50.7% | 2.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 27.7% | 23.1% | -4.6 pts |
| Away | 3.73 | 24.1% | 26.2% | 2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.86 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–17%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Hercílio Luz
Probability
50.7%
Model confidence
50.7%
Hercílio Luz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20