Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Heracles · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (7%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Heracles 3-0 Waalwijk
Original prediction
Heracles
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.44 | 64.3% | 55.8% | -8.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.71 | 19.7% | 20.6% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 5.79 | 16.0% | 23.6% | 7.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–17%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Heracles
Probability
55.8%
Model confidence
55.8%
Heracles has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HeraclesDWLWW
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
WaalwijkDLWWW
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
HeraclesWaalwijk
100.0Attack70.4
55.6Defence55.6
81.5Form51.9
77.6Power58.5
2.56xG1.62