Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Heracles · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Heracles 2-0 Vitesse
Original prediction
Heracles
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.56 | 59.7% | 54.8% | -4.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.40 | 21.1% | 20.8% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 4.86 | 19.1% | 24.3% | 5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Heracles
Probability
54.8%
Model confidence
54.8%
Heracles has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HeraclesLWWWW
GF 17 · GA 5 · avg 3.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
VitesseWLWWL
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
HeraclesVitesse
100.0Attack61.9
52.4Defence57.1
85.7Form61.9
78.2Power60.7
2.37xG1.52