Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Heracles · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (7%), 2-1 (7%), 3-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Heracles 3-2 Jong AZ
Original prediction
Heracles
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.34 | 68.9% | 58.4% | -10.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.37 | 17.2% | 19.5% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 6.67 | 13.9% | 22.1% | 8.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–17%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.3–27%
Predicted outcome
Heracles
Probability
58.4%
Model confidence
58.4%
Heracles has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HeraclesWWWWW
GF 21 · GA 7 · avg 4.20/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Jong AZWWLLW
GF 15 · GA 11 · avg 3.00/2.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
HeraclesJong AZ
100.0Attack83.3
53.3Defence33.3
100.0Form50.0
84.7Power55.2
3.03xG1.77