Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Emmen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Heracles are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (WLLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Emmen are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWDLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Emmen hold a 14.4-point power-rating edge (36.4 v 50.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.0% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Emmen holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Emmen
Probability
48.1%
Model confidence
12.0%
Emmen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20