Heraclesvs
De Graafschap
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eerste Divisie · 9/4/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Heracles · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 4-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Heracles 5-0 De Graafschap
Original prediction
Heracles
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.45 | 63.7% | 62.6% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.85 | 19.1% | 19.3% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 5.38 | 17.2% | 18.1% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.45 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.4–17%
Predicted outcome
Heracles
Probability
62.6%
Model confidence
62.6%
Heracles has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 19 · GA 12 · avg 3.80/2.40
GF 6 · GA 17 · avg 1.20/3.40