Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hennef 05 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-1
Hennef 05 are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLWLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.20 conceded, while SF Düren are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWWL), averaging 2.20 scored and 3.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Hennef 05 hold an 18.2-point power-rating edge (41.0 v 22.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 60.7% in the Oberliga - Mittelrhein, while Hennef 05 holds the strongest overall chance at 61% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 79% BTTS chance and 85% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Hennef 05
Probability
60.7%
Model confidence
60.7%
Hennef 05 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
GF 11 · GA 15 · avg 2.20/3.00