Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pesch · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2
Hennef 05 are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLDW), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Pesch are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Pesch hold a 5.5-point power-rating edge (41.0 v 46.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.1% in the Oberliga - Mittelrhein, while Pesch holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 77% BTTS chance and 78% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Pesch
Probability
45.1%
Model confidence
45.1%
Pesch has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20