Super League
Henan Jianye
Home
Dalian Zhixing
AwayThe model projects 1.48 xG for Henan Jianye and 1.22 xG for Dalian Zhixing. Dalian Zhixing's projected xG of 1.22 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 1-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. With only 1 goal expected in total, the match is projected to be a tight, low-scoring affair where one goal may be enough to decide the contest.
The model projects a combined xG of 2.71 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 1-0 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. Only 1 goal is expected in the most likely outcome — the model sees this as a tight, low-scoring contest where one goal could be decisive.
Momentum trend
last 5 matchesHenan JianyeDalian ZhixingProbability breakdown
Henan Jianye leads with 41% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.
Henan Jianye Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-0
Henan Jianye take on Dalian Zhixing in Super League.
Key factors
Why GoalVio backs this
Henan Jianye have a structural home advantage that the model quantifies directly. Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams — empirically derived from home sides scoring 10–15% more goals on their own ground. The Elo model gives Henan Jianye a 55% expected score in this fixture. When the underlying metrics are otherwise close, home advantage is often the decisive tipping factor.
Biggest risk: The xG gap between these sides is narrow — a small swing in form, a set-piece goal, or a tactical adjustment could flip the result. The model favours Henan Jianye, but this is not a fixture where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. If Dalian Zhixing score first, the game becomes genuinely open.
Risk factors
- ⚠Dalian Zhixing are in decent form with 3 wins from their last 10 matches — an upset cannot be ruled out.
- ⚠The xG gap is narrow at 0.26 — a small swing in form or tactics could flip the result.
- ⚠Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
Recent form
Henan Jianye
Dalian Zhixing
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing?
GoalVio's model predicts Henan Jianye to win with 41% confidence.
What is the predicted score for Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing?
The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing?
GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing?
GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.