Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Heming · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-3 (6%), 3-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Heming 3-0 Ullern
Original prediction
Heming
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 20:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.52 | 59.4% | 41.5% | -17.9 pts |
| Draw | 5.04 | 17.9% | 22.9% | 5.0 pts |
| Away | 3.98 | 22.7% | 35.7% | 13.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.52 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–36%
- 3.3–26%
Predicted outcome
Heming
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
Heming has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HemingWWLWL
GF 15 · GA 8 · avg 3.00/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
UllernWLLWW
GF 14 · GA 14 · avg 2.80/2.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
HemingUllern
33.3Attack82.7
66.7Defence32.0
33.3Form52.0
45.3Power55.1
2.56xG2.84