Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Frigg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-3 (7%), 1-3 (7%), 2-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Heming 5-1 Frigg
Original prediction
Frigg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.98 | 45.5% | 32.2% | -13.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.18 | 21.6% | 22.9% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.74 | 32.9% | 44.9% | 11.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–37%
- 2.1–37%
- 3.2–26%
Predicted outcome
Frigg
Probability
44.9%
Model confidence
44.9%
Frigg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HemingLWLD
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 2.25/2.50
BTTS 4/4O2.5 3/4
FriggWDWWW
GF 20 · GA 8 · avg 4.00/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
HemingFrigg
33.3Attack100.0
66.7Defence42.3
33.3Form71.8
45.3Power68.1
2.09xG3.44