Hemel Hempstead Townvs
Wingate & Finchley
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hemel Hempstead Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hemel Hempstead Town 1-1 Wingate & Finchley
Original prediction
Hemel Hempstead Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.39 | 64.7% | 55.5% | -9.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.57 | 19.8% | 23.0% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 5.81 | 15.5% | 21.5% | 6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.57 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Hemel Hempstead Town
Probability
55.5%
Model confidence
55.5%
Hemel Hempstead Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20