Hemel Hempstead Townvs
Weston-super-Mare
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - South · 8/29/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Weston-super-Mare · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hemel Hempstead Town 1-3 Weston-super-Mare
Original prediction
Weston-super-Mare
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.42 | 37.4% | 35.4% | -2.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.09 | 29.3% | 28.3% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.72 | 33.3% | 36.2% | 3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.72 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Weston-super-Mare
Probability
36.2%
Model confidence
36.2%
Weston-super-Mare has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80