Hemel Hempstead Townvs
Tonbridge Angels
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - South · 9/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tonbridge Angels · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 1-1 (13%), 0-2 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hemel Hempstead Town 1-1 Tonbridge Angels
Original prediction
Tonbridge Angels
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.17 | 41.7% | 30.9% | -10.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 26.5% | 28.8% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 2.84 | 31.8% | 40.3% | 8.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.42 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–212%
Predicted outcome
Tonbridge Angels
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Tonbridge Angels has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20