Hemel Hempstead Townvs
Farnham Town
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - South · 9/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hemel Hempstead Town · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hemel Hempstead Town 1-1 Farnham Town
Original prediction
Hemel Hempstead Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 43.1% | 37.1% | -6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.6% | 27.5% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.00 | 30.3% | 35.4% | 5.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.40 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Hemel Hempstead Town
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
37.1%
Hemel Hempstead Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40