Hemel Hempstead Townvs
AFC Totton
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - South · 10/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hemel Hempstead Town · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Hemel Hempstead Town 1-0 AFC Totton, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Hemel Hempstead Town 1-3 AFC Totton
Original prediction
Hemel Hempstead Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.61 | 56.6% | 45.6% | -11.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.91 | 23.4% | 29.2% | 5.8 pts |
| Away | 4.56 | 20.0% | 25.2% | 5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.0 pts
Projected Score
Hemel Hempstead Town 1–0 AFC Totton
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Hemel Hempstead Town
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
Hemel Hempstead Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
GF 1 · GA 12 · avg 0.20/2.40