Helmond Sportvs
NAC Breda
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eerste Divisie · 10/16/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
NAC Breda · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 1-2 (7%), 1-1 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Helmond Sport 0-2 NAC Breda
Original prediction
NAC Breda
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.09 | 18.3% | 30.4% | 12.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.53 | 20.5% | 21.0% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 1.52 | 61.2% | 48.6% | -12.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.52 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.1–27%
- 3.1–16%
Predicted outcome
NAC Breda
Probability
48.6%
Model confidence
48.6%
NAC Breda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60