Helmond Sportvs
Heracles
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eerste Divisie · 10/2/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Heracles · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-3 (8%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Helmond Sport 2-2 Heracles
Original prediction
Heracles
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.21 | 14.9% | 20.4% | 5.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.73 | 19.6% | 20.8% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 1.41 | 65.5% | 58.8% | -6.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.73 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–38%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Heracles
Probability
58.8%
Model confidence
58.8%
Heracles has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80