Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gute · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-3 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Helges 1-2 Gute
Original prediction
Gute
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.96 | 22.8% | 20.8% | -2.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.16 | 21.7% | 22.7% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 1.63 | 55.5% | 56.5% | 1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.63 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–211%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–39%
Predicted outcome
Gute
Probability
56.5%
Model confidence
56.5%
Gute has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HelgesLLDDL
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
GuteLWLWW
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
HelgesGute
28.8Attack48.5
16.7Defence51.5
15.2Form43.9
23.4Power48.7
0.87xG2.44